My local paper The Daily Star reports that General Motors plans to eliminate 21,000 workers, 2,600 dealers, and four brands, including Pontiac.
It's an odd reversal. Jobs are shipped overseas, while illegal aliens continue to arrive in America, apparently looking for the jobs. But where are the jobs going?
Meanwhile, "if the plan is approved, the U.S. government would own at least half of the top domestic automaker."
In our county, quite rural, the last GM dealer went out of business about six months ago. It had been a thriving business, but now the enormous building is simply empty, with two mechanics still working at the eastern end of the building.
I asked my older brother to explain what's going on with the economy. He runs a bank, and obviously knows more than me. He said to read a book by Kevin Phillips called Bad Money. Phillips argues apparently that America is going to become something like the Netherlands, England, and France -- former super powers that continue to have a good quality of life. But the real power is on its way to China.
Which means the fate of not only Tibet, but many other countries in that area of the world, is sealed?
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
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I dunno.
China owns so much US debt that it can't really afford for the US to fail (yet) -- though it seems to be moving (lots of) money into both gold and copper.
But China still has a billion people to feed. And a pretty rigid hierarchy. And no real will to conquer/lead. And Russia to contend with. And a very, very lopsided birth rate that is going to make for some vicious instability in about a decade or so.
Not that China can't -- or that the US isn't on the decline -- just that it's not inevitable yet.
I wonder what books people are reading that explain the decline, and what suggestions people are offering to turn this rig around.
I haven't read the Kevin Phillips book. I read part of another one he had written in which he argues that America isn't and shouldn't try to become a Christian nation.
It was another of my brother's favorite books.
I'm also reading more on the Duke lacrosse incident by the extremely astute KC Johnson. It's called Until Proven Innocent. It's just amazing how many details he's mastered surrounding the case. He's a true Investigative Poet.
I think his description is right on, but his prescription is still out of sight. Something perhaps about returning to the notion of excellence, and returning to the notion of fair competition, within the academy.
I suspect that lacrosse was doubly or triply endangered at Duke because it was a winning team, which ignited the envy of the professoriat, and because it was largely a white team, ignited fury.
The case is really a litmus test of what academia has become, and what America itself is in danger of becoming. The New York Times supported Nifong right up until the very end when Nifong finally admitted wrongdoing. Even then many papers around the country continued to demand that the lacrosse players be put on trial.
Everyone wants righteousness, but a lot of people want vengeance, pure and simple.
Why is China moving into gold and copper?
I wish I understood more about our current crossroads, and what guideposts (especially books) people are finding useful and sagacious in terms of understanding it.
Poor Tibet. But then, we've just recognized Cuba.
Kirby: Yes, Johnson's pretty incisive for an Obama voter (dunno what he thinks of his lad now, however). I follow his website postings now and then. And even the lib-left and ever-tanking NYT had to 'fess up that they'd been hoodwinked by their own reverse prejudice and wishful delusions in the case. Wish I could say the same for the 88 accusatory profs at Duke led by the thoroughly malignant abyss of thought, Houston Baker (now getting Vanderbilt to pay his hefty top-shelf liquor tabs). I expect Johnson's excerpted some of Baker's illiterate screeds on the accused Duke lacrosse players he referred to once as "barnyard animals" in a malignant scrap of screed directed at one of the accused's mother. As we earlier noted two of these ideological knuckle-brains of the 88 disgraced come from the U of Washington.
The gold should be pretty obvious (traditional store of wealth, etc) but I think the copper is along the same lines (even more industrial uses, no one is doing the same -- so china can jump the gun, etc).
We'll see how it pans out.
Kevin Phillips is an interesting character, having been a Republican strategist credited with turning the South toward the Republicans. He has since become a leading critic of the right. I believe he worked with Nixon as well. I read American Theocracy and found it informative and meticulously researched. I haven't read much on the new downswing as I doubt there is that much in book form since it is so early in the "acknowledged" crisis. I find Paul Krugman's op-ed pieces in the NY Times very informative. His columns are usually anthologized in book form. He has been talking about this for about 2 years: the real-estate bubble and how our economy is going to tumble when it pops.
GM, gold is a great source of wealth. When the stock markets are unpredictable and your currency is in flux, gold becomes a great investment as it tends to rise in these periods of crisis: many people buy is creating greater scarcity driving the price up. Copper has been a fool's gold; it's been "the new silver" since the 80's. It turns out it's not. China and the Saudis have purchased many US debt bonds. China is moving away from this but can only do it slowly as a great sell off will destabilize US currency, hurting the value of their investment. As long as they hold our debt and manufacture our products, I think it minimalizes the chance of war. Know that China is in a major arms buildup and is flexing its naval muscle. They are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan and to exert power outside of their traditional sphere of influence. Russia is by far the immediate threat as they can turn off the natural gas to Western Europe at any moment which gives them great leverage in their Caspian oil dreams. Georgia today, Azerbaijan tomorrow! The Russians are moving their forces closer to Tbilisi to take Georgia and there is little we can do about it. Now that the Chechen War is won, they will move on to new projects.
There is a theory that Obama, with TARP and the other ARP's, is giving wall street enough rope to hang themselves with. I'm not sure if it's true, but it's interesting.
I can't believe how ridiculous the media coverage of the swine flu is. I wonder how many people have died of the regular strains of flu since the swine flu broke out? They seem so desperate to sell newspapers it's kind of revolting.
--Tom
Tom: Have you read the rejoinder of Ross Douthat of "Atlantic Monthly" to those "American theocracy" claims in "First Things" (in a 2005 or '06 issue, I think)?
I was discussing the idea of China's growth with some friends last sunday night over a game or Risk. One of the individuals just got his first book published and has deals for the next two in the series. The question we were discussing was what language would be predominate in 50-75 years. It was supposed that Chinese would be fairly predominate with English still being the language of bussiness.
However this brought into question the idea of where will the Chinese population be. Someone brought up the claim that like 50% or more of the Chinese population smoke and this will lead to a decreased life span. Also the fact that the younger generations of chinese are composed of primarly males rather than females and that this will lead to a decreased population as well. So with these two causes and a few others China's rise to power might not be as quick or long lasting as we think.
As far as the book that best describes where we might be going could be close to Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire. We might end up in the same kind of prediciment with a some kind of schism that creates a Western and Eastern America as did Rome or maybe something similar. I'm not saying that that will happen there are just many similarrites between our two culture's rise and decline.
Lucky,
I argued as much a few weeks ago.
That, in fact, we are the United Kingdom equivalent of the Eastern Roman Empire.
So it's not that the collapse is starting -- it's that we're in the death throes.
Sleep well!
Lucky, what does Gibbon say is the central reason(s) that Rome falls?
Jacques,
I haven't; although, I do like the Atlantic Monthly.
GM,
"Those of you unfamiliar with the history of Rome might not know that when power began to be shared in the East and West (co-Caesars and co-Augusti and all that -- if you really want to get the digs, go here) there was conflict. War even. And that the (new) Eastern (part of the) empire felt free, independent of, and more progressive than the Western one. And that after a while, all the stuff done in the West simply came out of the East."
Care to elaborate on how we are in the death throes based upon this very elementary observation about the British Empire? Are you suggesting the US and the UK will go to war?
I have a beautiful edition of Gibbon's great work at home that makes me feel guilty for not reading it.
--Tom
Kirby, Lucky, et al:
Gibbon gives a number of minor reasons for Rome's fall to the barbarians, but he's of the skeptical Enlightenment enough to blame Christianity in his own stylish way (sapping Rome's resolve to resist attack--Augustine in the late 3rd-early fourth centuries had denied this). As a young man Gibbon converted to Catholicism, but later lapsed. What is amazing about both the Westerm and Eastern Roman Empires is not that they fell, but they lasted as long as they did. The early imperial historian Livy put the problem (this is from memory, so be indulgent) as follows: "we can no longer bear our ills or the cures for them." Other theories include the inundation of Rome by barbarians eager to avail themselves not only of Roman wealth and comfort, but of the full advantages of Roman citizens. Another theory points to heavy taxation on the Empire's prosperous (who funded city and town projects), or the reliance on barbarian soldiers for defense and protection of the Empire, rather than full Roman citizens. And of course, divided rule and civil wars, even Romans' lead conduits for water (lowering the birthrate), etc.
Analogies between ancient Rome and modern European and American civilizations--much more delicate growths than many might think--are obvious. Toynbee's organic example (or Spengler's for that matter) of the waxing and waning of civilizations on the challenge and response test is still in some ways serviceable. The forces of militancy, statism, command economics, and anti-Americanism are growing in some parts of the world and I'm not sure there's the same American citizen-soldier-patriot spirit alive as there was in Kirby's dad's age (or in ancient Greece of the golden age, when Greek democracy was born in the common sharing of danger and sacrifice by the Athenian hoplite soldiery), let alone in Washington's, Jefferson's, and Lincoln's times. So far, my take on the Obama presidency is that it represents a dangerous combination of prevarication, arrogance, naivete, and incompetence both in its attitudes towards its citizens as well as towards its foreign neighbors and enemies. We're like Chicago now, headed soon for becoming Detroit or DC (or South Africa with its high criminality and over 25% unemployment or Belarus withits post-Soviet authoritarianism), and then finally America as the New Zimbabwe looms into view (though not for many years, due to this country's accumulated wealth and infrastructure).
Kirby,
Its been a while since I read the book but the first reason that sticks out in my mind is the loss of civic virtue that happened.
I don't remember how he defined civic virture though.
I also remember him placing some of the blame on Christanity in tht people became more concerned with the life after than their mortal probation. He also placed the decline in the hands of barbarian auxilaries used by the Roman army.
"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the cause of the destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident and removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight. The story of the ruin is simple and obvious: and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed we should rather be surprised that it has subsisted for so long." (Edward Gibbon "the decline and fall of Rome")
However I will most likely become even more informed by the end of the summer because I am taking a History class over the summer about the History of the Roman Empire.
I'm a bit more cynical than other posters here.
The problem started with a liquidity crisis in the cash markets, prompted by the overwhelming # of bad loans based on over inflated housing prices, and then leading to huge numbers of defaulted loans.
This crisis was amplified by the deregulation of the "no short on a down tick" rule in the stock market, coinciding with the "mark to market" GAAP rule for banks, now recently reversed.
And now Obama and Dems are using this crisis, now averted months ago, to institute big government. Fear mongers all!
Did anyone notice that China declined Coke's application to buy Huiyuan Juice because of it's worry about a monopoly??? REALLY?? China is worried about freedom of trade?
Nothing has changed.
WW
Are you suggesting the US and the UK will go to war?Um, no. I'm suggesting they went to war. Twice.
And I'm thinking about how historians will look at us in 1000 or 2000 years. It's pretty obvious that the UK's expansion and domination resulted in a power sharing scheme that then led to a schism (with several attempts at co-rule since then [special friendship what?]) in which the newer half of the empire ended up being more powerful and vigorous.
That's all.
WW: Concisely-put description of how we arrived at our current economic plight and the reaction of the Obama coterie to it. Posting from the West Coast (San Diego--what's the Chula Vista I lived in as a kid for two years like these days?), you frequently don't get the commentary treatment back your posts deserve.
A great unknown in all this is the rapid rate of conversion to Christianity among the Chinese. Spengler, in an Aug. 7, 2007, article for the Asian Times, notes the intention of indigenous Chinese missionaries to move westward, converting Muslims as they go. By mid century, the largest concentration of Christians in the world will be in China. Will this have any cultural fallout? That's the big question.
Bill
well
now is the time to buy
a new Pontiac AND
to fill the freezer with pork chops...
good deal on both...
maybe even a cruse to Cancun
cheap cheep cheap
Jacques Albert,
Chula Vista is unfortunately hard hit from the mortgage crisis. It's a sea of foreclosures, as are El Cajon, Santee and Escondido.
The City of Chula Vista got brave and started fining the banks for allowing the homes and yards to decline. Gotta luv 'em for that!
Anyway, today is my birthday, and I"m going to Disneyland....the happiest place on Earth.
WW
WW: Best birthday wishes from me n' Emmy! My high school graduating class (from Hueneme HS) partied all night there way back when.
Hapy Birthday to WW! Do you really think that Disney is the happiest place no earth? I find myself miserable there, because it all seems like a bunch of fake rides, and fake animals, and lots of diverting distraction without authenticity. The place gives me a creepy feeling, and then, too, it's so expensive!
But to each their own.
As for America, I'm not sure that the economic crisis is irreversible.
But I think we need to get a president with some real gumption, some real principles, some real brains.
the last choice that was presented was basically quite poor. I'd like someone like Warren Buffet in charge of the White House. I don't think anybody who's any good will run for president any more. First off, the salary is too low.
I think we ought to triple the salary, and try to get someone like Bill Gates or Warren Buffet.
The Romans had a few good Caesars before they had the long string ofpsychopaths: Nero, Heliogabalus, Caligula. Even Tiberius was unbelievably rotten.
Bill clinton was bad: but he was no Caligula.
W. was bad, but he was no Tiberius.
Obama is a bit lame, but he was no Heliogabalus.
The leadership does matter. I don't see why we can't close the door to illegal immigration overnight with a simple carding procedure that makes the employer responsible. And we could shut down ACORN, and make loan officers responsible for bad loans.
This woiuld shut down bad loans.
I don't know what to do about the stock market. It's basically gambling. Should it be shut down?
Maybe.
It seems that with a few simple ideas in terms of making people responsible, we could shut down a lot of irresponsibility. I don't think the CDC should spend more than 50% on curing sexual diseases. Those diseases could be stopped with simple responsibility. And you basically can't cure someone who insists on being promiscuous with strangers.
I think it's better to focus on children's health, and on things like Lyme's Disease (currently receiving almost no funding from the CDC in spite of the fact that 1% of the nation now has it).
A responsibility meritocracy ought to be put in place with a few social mechanisms in place for those who can't be responsible for themselves (the insane, the totally disabled, the mentally handicapped).
Everyone else has to function.
The situation would shortly straighten itself out if we adopted a few normal norms and got away from enabling the lazy, the morally confused, and the degenerate.
Those diseases could be stopped with simple responsibility. And you basically can't cure someone who insists on being promiscuous with strangers. Oh Kirby,
you can't say that. That's evil and repressing.
We can't kill the bureaucracy until we figure out a way to get rid of its members.
I like Moldbug's idea -- simply remove everyone who is a member of the bureaucracy from their positions and influence but continue to pay them.
Then invite people to apply for their jobs -- based only on merit tests and make all of those jobs at-will.
But it would take a near-revolution to do that.
And Disneyland isn't the happiest place on earth. The Magic Kingdom is.
It's been 100 days, you have to be kidding me! You have already judged Obama? It's a little hard to take anyone seriously that would come to such strong opinions based upon such a small sample size: especially regarding foreign policy.
"So far, my take on the Obama presidency is that it represents a dangerous combination of prevarication, arrogance, naivete, and incompetence both in its attitudes towards its citizens as well as towards its foreign neighbors and enemies."
But you liked Bush it seems, I don't get it? You've just described Bush perfectly!
Jacques,
Are you a fan of Gibbon? How about Toynbee, Spengler and Durant?
--Tom
I spent grad night at Disneyland too. I think it's a right of passage.
And "The Happiest Place On Earth" is it's motto....I didn't invent it. But I was certainly happy today. Especially wearing my Cinderella tiara and granting wishes with my magic wand.
WW
Tom:
I'm not so much a "fan" of Gibbon, but I do admire his ironical and stlish prose. Toynbee, Spengler, and Collingwood (in "The Idea of History") evidence the influence of Hegelian ways of thought in the idea of the historical progress of the self-knowing spirit found in "The Phenomenology of the Spirit" and the like. Toynbee's partisanship for Turkey after WWI led him, sadly a mon avis, to praise the ancient Persian Empire at the expense of the Greek city-states' defense of their homeland against the Persian menace.
I think even the mainstream (that is, desperately in the tank for Obama) press is getting a bit restless and impatient (when they ought to be ashamed) with this administration's bold-faced lies followed by clumsy prevarications that attempt to cover them up. But MSM reporters still rarely ask Obama any difficult questions and seem easily satisfied with the vaguest and least specific replies and "Chicago promises" (incisive followups are virtually unknown).
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