Wednesday, July 28, 2010
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7 comments:
Well, I don't think that the economy collapsed because of Barack Obama. There were too many problems with the financial system that led up to the Crash of 2008.
The same is true with the Great Depression, which was not caused by FDR.
However, both Obama and FDR can be said to be responsible for prolonging the crisis and making it far worse.
In the case of FDR, at least we got the bipartisan Pecora Commission and reasonable financial reforms that lasted half a century.
With Obama, we got Dodd-Frank, which, instead of being a solution, is just another serious problem to be cleaned up by some future administration and Congress.
See: Why Dodd-Frank won't bring economic recovery.
http://www.theoildrum.com/
i think that lays out pretty clearly why the economy collapsed.
a
The fellow I trust most on this issue is Scott Sumner. He thinks he economy collapsed not because of the banking crisis but because the Federal Reserve was too tight with the money supply in october 2008,
here's his first post.
"Welcome to a new blog on the endlessly perplexing problem of monetary policy. You’ll quickly notice that I am not a natural blogger, yet I feel compelled by recent events to give it a shot. By “recent events” I don’t mean the financial crisis, but rather the dramatic fall in aggregate demand since last summer. Indeed, one goal of this blog is to show that we have fundamentally misdiagnosed the nature of the recession, attributing to the banking crisis what is actually a failure of monetary policy. The intended audience is professional economists as well as others with a strong interest and background in macroeconomics."
I don't really know understand what he's talking about, but isn't his tone so sincere. And everything the media or a public figure tells you ends up being a lie once you learn something about it, so I have no trouble believing that the usual story about this is just a lie too.
What I like about your blog, is that you are indisputably thinking completely for yourself. Nothing here is second hand.
How do you do it?
I like that sentence of Cesaire's that you can't ask anyone else to do your thinking for you. I am troubled by the ides of other people. I think it would probably be better if I thought within a given lineage (can you call surrealism a lineage, or is it a history of anomalies?). Lutheranism was an attempt to give myself a true lineage, and I think that the two kingdoms theory is probably quite old. My take on it is disputed here at least by Stu. I wish a real pastor would tell me how far off I am. I think it IS the difference betwen law and gospel, in a nutshell.
The ten commandments is basic Lutheran thought, out of the catechism.
My sense of humor encourages me to go out on lmbs, but also makes i difficult for anyone else to take me seriously. I think somehow that only the laughable can be taken seriously.
Your compliment swelled my head a lot. I need to take a pill to get it to stp swelling.
This thought came from arguing with my brother for an hour over the sources of te cllapse. He's an actual banker. He thinks its a mysterious phenomenon.
The fact is that everything is stuck in this economy.
I am reading amity Shlaes new history of the Depression -- in which she claims that Hoover and Roosevelt were more or less the same thing, and that Coolidge was the one who had it right (I think). Coolidge is at least very funny, and was always my favorite president.
But I do think that everyone is cautious when the president isn't sending clear signals.
In a classroom the students need a clear set of signals.
Without that, people are fraid to budge.
But maybe you were kidding.
"I am reading amity Shlaes new history of the Depression -- in which she claims that Hoover and Roosevelt were more or less the same thing, and that Coolidge was the one who had it right (I think). Coolidge is at least very funny, and was always my favorite president."
I once ran across this clip of Paul Krugman attacking George Will for advocating this position.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yAyQV8gOjo
I find Krugman's position stronger than Will's: that you don't need to invoke uncertainty wrt what FDR would do next in order to explain lack of investment during the Depression, since if the factories aren't being used why would anyone want to invest in more factories.
"But maybe you were kidding."
I almost never kid.
from Marginal Revolution
"I don't trust stimulus analyses which fail to assign a central role to confidence and confidence is hard to model."
interesting.
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